The cotton sector, the lifeblood of Pakistan’s textile-dominated economy, is unraveling at an alarming pace. Recent data from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) reveals a devastating year-on-year decline in cotton arrivals of almost 30% – plummeting from 844,257 bales in 2024 to 593,821 bales by July 31, 2025. The crisis poses a threat not only to farmers’ livelihoods or even the textile ecosystem, but also to the entire economy, which relies on cotton and textiles for over half of the country’s export earnings.
The dire national decline is reflected in almost all of the country’s growing regions except Punjab, which actually saw its output creep up slightly on the back of strong crops in several areas of south Punjab. On the other hand, Sindh’s output collapsed by 47%, with Sanghar, a major growing area, down 44%, and Nawabshah down by as much as 77%. Shockingly, districts like Khairpur and Sukkur recorded zero arrivals.
However, there are also some questions over whose data to trust, since the PCGA report’s figures are nowhere near those in the Punjab government’s Crop Reporting Service, which claims Punjab produced 609,000 bales, or more than twice what the PCGA claims. But beyond the reporting issues, industry and the government cannot even agree on what went wrong, let alone work together on solutions. While extreme weather, pest infestations and water scarcity were genuine factors, policy failures and farmers’ refusal to invest in modern practices were also contributors.
Like other sectors, the government’s abject failure to create a progressive tax system has led to an 18% sales tax on cotton, which hammers profit margins in good and bad crop years. Yet, affordable credit, especially for smaller farmers, is almost nonexistent. Adoption of modern climate-resilient and pest-resistant seed variants is subpar, and even general climate adaptation measures, such as investment in water-efficient irrigation, are almost nonexistent. If policymakers don’t act soon to weave a coherent cotton revival strategy, the fabric of this critical industry will be torn beyond repair.
