Tehran & Tel Aviv : Pakistan’s strategic crossroads

In the realm of Defense and Strategic Studies, conflicts and wars are not always destructive, they are often opportunities for states to reorient power, pursue strategic gains, or prevent encirclement. The Current tensions between Iran and Israel have raised alarms across the region, but for Pakistan, this is not a moment to watch silently. It is a moment to engage through the lens of realism, history, and national interest to preserve its security and prestige in the region.

To understand this latest confrontation, we must revisit history – particularly the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), when Iraq, under Saddam Hussein, began developing nuclear capabilities with French help. In 1980, Iran launched the first airstrike on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor near Baghdad. This attack, though significant, did not achieve its full objective. Less than a year later, Israel conducted operation Opera in 1981, a surprise bombing mission that completely destroyed the Iraqi facility. Despite being bitter enemies, Iran and Israel had overlapping strategic interests: preventing a nuclear armed Iraq. This situation reveals how conflict shapes shifting alliances and technical convergence, even among adversaries.

Since its controversial creationState of Israel is highly unbearable for the neighboring countries and vice versa; the state of Iraq under Saddam, Syria under Assad, Libya under Gadaffi, Egypt of Al-Nassar. These all nations were trying to become power holder in the region and it was only possible after getting rid of regional enemies and creating a nuclear bomb.

Currently, Israel is pursuing a calculated campaign of subversion and exhaustion against Iran. The attacks on Iranian nuclear infrastructure particularly Heavy Water reactors along with covert assassinations of IRGC commanders, Armed Force chief and nuclear scientists. Civilian infrastructure and leadership centers have also been targeted, damaging Iran’s morale and military cohesion. This is part of a broader strategy of attrition designed to isolate and internally destabilize Tehran.

However, Iran itself has not always acted as a consistent regional ally to Pakistan. Its collaborations with India on the Chabahar Port, in close proximity to Pakistan’s Gwadar, has long been a sore point in Islamabad. Chabahar has been positioned as an Indian backed counter to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Furthermore, allegations persist that Iran has allowed separatist elements, including factions of the Balochistan insurgency, to operate in areas near the Pakistan-Iran border.

These realities present a dilemma for Pakistan. While Iran has undermined Pakistan’s interests at times, it remains a neighboring Islamic republic, a strategic buffer, and a key piece in the stability of the Muslim World. Pakistan cannot afford to allow Israel to expand its strategic footprint in the region, especially near its western flank.

In this complex strategic scenario, the question arises: what should Pakistan do?

Pakistan must adopt a measured, realist policy.

First: If the war continues and Israel extends it influence to the western border of Pakistan, then it will cause serious problems for the country. Pakistan will need to stop Israeli expansion. Israel has weakened other countries mentioned in Netanyahu’s 1995 book Fighting Terrorism, he explicitly identified six nations -Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya, Sudan and Lebanon -as existential threats to Israel and called on the United States to spearhead efforts to dismantle these governments. Quoting from his book: “The best way to deal with this threat is not to appease it, but to crush it… The regimes that support terrorism must be replaced by democracies or weakened beyond the ability to do harm.” – Benjamin Netanyahu, Fighting Terrorism (1995)

Today five of those six countries lie in various stages of collapse, foreign occupation, or enduring civil war, and it’s mostly because U.S. or NATO involvement.  While Iran may appear not a strong ally to some, particularly regarding regional policies, it remains a geopolitical buffer and an Islamic neighbor that should not be left vulnerable to Israeli aggression.

Second: Pakistan should adopt measures to maintain cautious relations with Iran, supporting its sovereignty without aligning blindly with it. Pakistan can strengthen its diplomatic relations with Iran and can decrease Indian involvement in the Iranian region. Pakistan must move in a realistic manner and not take decisions based on emotions or sectarian believes.

Third: Pakistan needs to adopt a nuanced policy, supporting Iran without getting entangled in the internal politics, and playing a key role in stabilizing the situation diplomatically. This approach will also allow Islamabad to position itself as a reasonable regional power, potentially using this scenario to advance its own strategic interests, such as resolving Kashmir issue.

Meanwhile, rise of India-Israel strategic axis adds a dangerous layer to this equation. Israel has supplied India with surveillance systems, UAVs, missile defense technology, and possibly cyber warfare assets – all of which are being deployed the Line of Control (LoC). In this context, a weakened Iran is not in Pakistan’s interest, as it removes a balancing actor and risks creating two front security dilemma: India in the east and chaos in the west.

However, if the United States decides to militarily intervene in favor of Israel, Pakistan must act through realist lens – prioritizing national defense and strategic autonomy over ideological alignment with the Iranian government. This is not the time for ideological alliance with Tehran, but neither is it the time to aid a militarized foreign intervention in the Muslim world. Instead, Islamabad should reaffirm its role as a sovereign, non-aligned power – one capable of offering backchannel mediation and acting as a stabilizing force in the conflict.

Clausewitz once wrote that “war is the continuation of politics by other means”. Today, diplomacy must be the continuation of strategy by every available means. Pakistan must not view the Iran-Israel conflict through sectarian, emotional, or religious lenses. It must view it through the lens of realism, sovereignty, and regional equilibrium.

In a nutshell, a region rife with shifting alliances and opportunistic intervention, strategic neutrality is not weakness – it is wisdom. Pakistan must defend its borders, protect its interests, and chart an independent path that safeguards its people and regional credibility.