The recent commitment by 26 nations to provide postwar security guarantees to Ukraine marks a pivotal moment in international efforts to counter Russian aggression and stabilise Eastern Europe. Spearheaded by France, the coalition includes key European powers, Canada, Australia and Japan, and aims to deploy a multinational “reassurance force” across land, sea and air to deter future attacks once hostilities cease. While the promise is significant, its effectiveness hinges on unwavering US support to fulfil its true potential.
But even without the US, the sheer number of countries signing on makes future Russian misadventures more unlikely, as an attack on a country’s troops can be regarded as an attack on the country – and in the case of an EU or NATO member state’s soldiers, an attack on the whole union. This alone is enough to assure Kyiv that its sovereignty will be permanently defended, not merely temporarily protected.
But despite European leadership, US involvement remains the linchpin. President Trump’s administration has offered air support and intelligence but refuses to commit ground troops. His emphasis on cutting Russian oil revenues and pressuring China — key financiers of Moscow’s war machine — adds economic weight to the strategy. However, without formalised US military backing, European forces could lack the robust “backstop” needed to deter a resurgent Russia.
But even if they do have the resolve to restrain Russia, the reality is that, with peace talks remaining stalled, Putin is not going to feel threatened and is unlikely to show any genuine interest in dialogue. Recent reports from Beijing, where leaders of Russia, China and several other countries were cozying up with each other on the sidelines of events commemorating the end of World War II, suggest Russia still has substantial support from countries outside, or on the fringes of US interest.
