Scholars, policymakers, public office-holders and citizens may be wondering alike: how long will the new warmth in the Pak-US relations last? These apprehensions emanate from expressions like “there are no free lunches”, “the price to be paid”, and the history of transactional Pak-US relationships experiencing sudden, rather rude breakups. The comprehensive relationship between Pakistan and China, likewise, also does not align with the current US national security strategy. The cold logic and instinct say that it may be short-lived. Yet, it does not mean that we should shy away from the emerging opportunities of cooperation with the sole superpower.
President Donald Trump might be seeing partnering with Pakistan for extraction of natural resources, economic cooperation, bitcoin mining and other ventures as an opportunity that could help him attain his election slogan, “Make America Great Again”. He also knows that if the US does not invest in rare minerals, oil and gas in Pakistan, China and other countries will most likely acquire major share with attendant politico-economic benefits. His personal objective is to win the Nobel Peace Prize, for which Pakistan has nominated him as well.
Trump already has multiple ceasefires to his credit. Gazza and Ukraine will add to these. Pakistan should continue to support his peace efforts. He may also be engaging with Pakistan in an attempt to wean it away from China. It’s a well-understood fact that CPEC is the flagship corridor of BRI. It not only links China with the world through the Indian Ocean, but will also help counter possible Chinese territorial containment, especially through the Strait of Malacca/South China Sea.
The designation of BLA and Majid Brigade as global terrorist entities by the US State Department is a significant step. It also exudes positivity i.e. 1) possibly not favouring targeting of CPEC anymore, 2) letting Pakistan develop economically, 3) Pakistan could be helpful in brokering Palestinian-Israeli truce, and moving towards his dream project “Abraham Accords”, and 4) creating a peaceful environment in Balochistan for extraction of minerals by US companies.
Pakistan may seek to maximise education scholarships in STEM as well as US help to develop its abundant youth into useful citizens for Pakistan and the world. Other areas where help can be sought include the construction of new dams and canal systems; industrialisation; cooperation in technology and agriculture sectors; and mitigating adverse effects of climate change.
Pakistan must take advantage of these developments by creating an investment and business-friendly atmosphere; institute special laws to protect foreign investments; and set up special courts for quicker dispute resolution mechanisms. We should invite Russia, Iran, Canada, KSA, Qatar, the UAE and others to participate in investment in Pakistan. This can result in better deals through competition, and ultimately enhanced security due to international investments.
However, we need to move forward carefully and methodically to avoid being induced into undesired situations. Safeguarding our national interests in a wise, quiet and patient manner is important. Our national interests align well with China. We benefit immensely from China’s military, economic, political and diplomatic support. Therefore, we must safeguard this bond and CPEC at all costs.
The Pak-US relationship may experience issues when Trump leaves the Oval office. Therefore, complex interdependence i.e. more reliance on long-term non-governmental connections, including B2B and people to people, is very essential. This will ensure long-term, mutually beneficial Pakistan-USA ties.
Promoting unity and inclusiveness within the country shall become a gain multiplier. The ownership by political leaders supported by the bureaucracy, judiciary, the armed forces and the people of Pakistan is important for the long-term sustainability of our economic development and bilateral relations.
