Pakistan is considered one of the developing countries and, as such, is striving to become a more industrialized nation without leaving its deeply rooted agricultural economy. During the mid-60s, spanning over a decade, Pakistan made great strides in that direction. Later, this momentum was lost due to the political instability and poor planning by the bureaucrats and policymakers. In the following decades, unplanned industrial developments and a lack of interest in upgrading technologies not only declined the plants’ productivity but also created environmental challenges. The plants were considered the cash cows, and thus, investments were made at just the bare minimum levels to keep them running. Due to this approach and the lack of environmental policy, industrial plants have become one of the significant sources of pollution. During the same period, the Pakistani middle class continued to grow, and their desire to adopt Western lifestyles led to the increased use of personal transportation (cars, motorcycles), air conditioning, electric/gas appliances, processed foods, and other luxury items as status symbols. As a result, major metropolitan cities have become densely populated and sources of significant pollutants, including highly elevated levels of carbon dioxide (CO2), the primary cause of global warming, as well as flooding, earthquakes, droughts, mudslides, and other extreme natural catastrophic events.
To support its industrial activities and the unstoppable increase in the personal transportation preference by the growing middle class, Pakistan heavily imports oil and gas (fossil fuels) from the GCC and other countries, creating a super-thick haze, heavy fog, and smoke, which are significant sources of alarming public health, particularly respiratory illnesses. This trend has led to traffic congestion in major cities. As a result, an ever-expanding landscape of chronic health crises has emerged. For all this, pollution is the root cause and is intensifying COPD cases and other pulmonary diseases in every age group and socio-economic segment of the population. If this trend remains unchecked, it will have a significant impact on the country’s fragile public health system and exacerbate its effects, as one of the major contributors to global warming.
Every society’s quality of life and prosperity depend on its economic growth through industrial activities, which require power supplies. For its power generation, Pakistan is heavily dependent on fossil fuels (coal, oil & gas), which are the primary proven sources of pollution and contributors to unhealthy air quality, making it difficult to breathe. Currently, Pakistan consumes approximately 200-210 million barrels of oil per year, primarily imported from GCC member countries. According to the State Bank of Pakistan, in 2024, the nation spent a whopping $5.1 billion (approximately $ 20.40 per person) on oil imports alone.
The industry experts claim that for every barrel of oil, 0.43-0.45 metric tons of CO2 are generated. This means that from oil alone, 90 to 100 million metric tons (MT) of CO2 are emitted in Pakistan. With the renewed effort to become a more industrialized nation, aiming to boost its exports and reduce dependence on agriculture, Pakistan is poised to continue increasing its carbon footprint and CO2 emissions, the primary sources of pollution and climate change.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the total number of vehicles (including cars, pickup trucks, heavy-duty hauling trucks, buses, etc.) is growing at a rate of 10% per year. According to CEIC (Census & Economic Information Center, based in Hong Kong) and other data reporting agencies, as of 2022, the total number of vehicles (registered & unregistered) in Pakistan was about 23.6 million units. In Pakistan, vehicles alone generate more than 100 million MT of CO2 per year. However, with the current conservative projection of about a 10% growth rate, by 2050, Pakistan’s vehicle population will reach about 400 million units. This means that by 2050, if EVs and green technologies adoption is not accelerated, up to 180 million MT of carbon dioxide will be generated by the vehicles alone!
Besides the transportation industry, there are other sources of CO2 emitters, like the power plants (using coal, oil & gas), chemical plants, biomass plants, steel, cement factories, and other heavy industries. Steel and cement plants not only consume an exceedingly high amount of energy in their production processes, but they are also among the most pollution-generating industries. According to a recent study by the “Global Carbon Project,” cement is reported to be the most energy-intensive industrial product globally. By conservative estimates, Pakistan has generated about 14 million MT of CO2 from this industry alone in 2018. According to industry experts, Pakistan is among the top thirty (30) CO2 emitters of the world, generating over 200 million MT in the pre-COVID year. By the next decade, it will reach over 420 million MT of CO2 emissions if it remains unchecked. According to the Swiss Air Quality Index (AQI) and other international organizations, Lahore, the hometown of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, has been reported as one of the most polluted cities in the world, with an AQI rating of over 120. CO2 emissions are not only a significant source of pollution but also responsible for the climate change that Pakistan is experiencing, as evidenced by devastating earthquakes, torrential rains, flooding, landslides, extreme heat conditions, droughts, and water depletion from lakes and reservoirs.
No country can indeed live without cement and steel to continue growing its economy, supporting its development, and improving its standard of living. Thus, in today’s industrial world, the only way to live sustainably and maintain growth while reducing its carbon footprint is through the adoption of proven, universal, reliable, and sustainable technology. To date, in addition to the natural process of photosynthesis by plants, carbon capture & storage (CCS) technology has shown outstanding results. It is being used very successfully commercially in several European countries. However, due to its continued technological breakthroughs and exemplary successes under every condition, it requires multilevel collaborations involving governments, policymakers, investors, multilateral donors, industry leaders, and the private sector.
Under the current government, Pakistan appears committed to addressing the ever-increasing pollution by devising environmental policies to curb and reduce pollutants, particularly CO2 emissions. The former government-initiated tree plantation, on a massive scale (10 billion trees), did not materialize.
Trees do indeed help reduce atmospheric CO2, but starting from seedlings takes a very long time to reap the benefits from the tree plantation scheme. One must remember that over 10 years after the plantation, only 60 to 65% of the planted trees survive. According to exhaustive research by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), a mature tree (3-5 years old) absorbs ~21 kg of CO2 per year. For every MT of CO2 absorption (per year), about 50 trees are needed. Thus, for every 100 million MT of CO2, Pakistan will need about 5 billion healthy trees to absorb the CO2 emissions generated just from the vehicles (currently generating about 100 million MT of CO2 per year).
Even though tree plantation is a great natural way not only to absorb the atmospheric CO2 but also through its naturally built-in photosynthesis process, it converts it into oxygen (O2), the lifeline for all the living organisms, including human beings. Since industrial activities and transportation cannot be stopped to wait for the plantation to reach maturity, the best solution is to use carbon capture and storage technology (CCS). Using this technology, CO2 is captured at its point of production (factories and power plants). After capture, it must be transported via a pipeline or other means, such as tank trucks or vessels, to the storage sites. Typically, storage sites are in the ocean or underground. These technologies are already being successfully used in the EU and the Scandinavian countries with few challenges.
Like any modern technology, CCS technology requires significant investments in its infrastructure and capabilities, which are not currently available in developing countries, including Pakistan. This means that Pakistan must approach the developed countries that are currently using this technology and are willing to share it. Since global warming is a worldwide issue, it would be a great initiative if the UN spearheaded this project by creating a consortium of CCS technology companies and countries, directing them to transfer the technology to developing countries, as well as poor nations. Additionally, multilateral donor agencies and investment bankers should be brought on board to fund these projects at zero cost, or at a rate equivalent to their CO2 emissions, or a fraction of the revenues generated through their plants. This will be a significant landmark and milestone for the UN, and it will be as memorable as its creation after the Second World War. By sponsoring and underwriting this project (CCS), the UN will not only help countries that lack access to technology and financial means to reduce their CO2 emissions but will also contribute to the collective reduction of the world’s carbon footprint and collectively reach the carbon-neutral target of 2050.
This blueprint for tackling global warming will be a winning pathway for every nation in creating more inclusive and fair conditions for breathing healthy air, without sacrificing the determination of the free spirit to continue pursuing and advancing the frontiers of excellence in technology, health, and quality of life.
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