HYDERABAD: With river levels continuing to swell in Punjab, Sindh is preparing for a potential super flood, with officials warning that flows could reach 900,000 cusecs or more in the coming days.
Protecting lives, livestock, barrages and embankments has been declared the provincial government’s foremost priority.
“The entire katcha (riverine) belt of Sindh is going to be inundated,” Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah cautioned during visits to dykes and barrages in Sukkur and Larkana on Sunday. He said while he hoped the flood level would not surpass the 900,000-cusec threshold, the province was taking no chances, recalling the 2010 deluge when flows at Guddu barrage unexpectedly surged to 1.15 million cusecs, displacing millions and causing Rs373 billion in losses.
Shah said mapping of riverine populations has helped project different scenarios of displacement. Between Guddu and Sukkur barrages alone, some 459,000 people could be affected if torrents exceed 900,000 cusecs. If water flow remains between 500,000 and 700,000 cusecs, around 130,941 people — over 21,800 families — would be impacted, while an additional 104,255 people would be at risk if the flow rises towards 900,000. Senior Minister Sharjeel Inam Memon earlier estimated that as many as 1.65 million people live in Sindh’s katcha belt.
Relief efforts are being scaled up, with the provincial government planning 948 camps, of which Shah expects about 514 to be operational. Two Pakistan Navy teams have already been deployed on both banks of the river, and the army’s assistance will be sought if necessary.
Irrigation experts remain cautious, saying it is too early to predict the exact inflow into Sindh at Guddu barrage. Shah said clearer figures would be available once peak flows from the Chenab and Jhelum reach Trimu in Punjab, from where water typically takes three days to arrive at Panjnad and two more to reach Guddu.
The CM noted that while 855,000 cusecs were recorded under Chiniot bridge earlier, flows had dropped to 435,000 cusecs by the time they reached Trimu on Sunday afternoon as the water spread across settled areas. He expressed hope that a similar reduction would ease pressure by the time the floodwaters arrive in Sindh in five to six days.
Authorities have identified six vulnerable dykes between Guddu and Sukkur, with Qadirpur Shaink bund in Ghotki on the left bank and the KK bund on the right bank as the most concerning. While both withstood a 550,000-cusec flow on 24 August, Shah admitted uncertainty about their capacity to endure 900,000 cusecs.
He explained that Shaink is backed by a loop bund, which would shield outer settlements but still endanger people living between the two embankments. Urging residents of riverine villages to evacuate voluntarily, he also appealed to the media not to create panic.
Sindh Irrigation Minister Jam Khan Shoro and Secretary Irrigation Zareef Khehro briefed the chief minister that 3,280 staff had been deployed along the left bank and 2,064 along the right bank between Guddu and Sukkur. Several levees, including Qadirpur Shaink, Raonti, Baiji and RN, were categorised as highly sensitive.
Officials also reported that rehabilitation of Guddu barrage, which began in 2017, is 72 per cent complete, with gate repairs and installations still underway. Shah directed that work must be finished by March 2026 without further delay.
Reiterating his hope that Sindh would be spared the scale of devastation seen in 2010, Shah stressed that the provincial government was fully mobilised to safeguard people, agriculture and infrastructure against any eventuality.
