The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting”, wrote Sun Tzu more than 2 thousands years ago in his landmark book ‘The Art of War’. As advocated by the former Chinese military colonels in “Unrestricted Warfare”, this is not just a quotation but an active guiding principle in the modern Chinese strategic policy. The recent shift in New Delhi’s outlook towards China perfectly portrays how the ancient wisdom helped China achieve its tactical goals: weakening New Delhi’s bid of portraying itself as a counterweight to China in the geopolitical chessboard and paralyzing its offensive-cum-defensive architecture.
The recent visit of the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi in India is of significant importance in this realm, particularly after a humiliating military and narrative defeat of New Delhi in the Pakistan-India spring 2025 standoff. Wang was received by the National Security Advisor Doval, External Affairs minister S. Jai Shankar, and PM Modi. The meeting was concluded by drafting a 10-point policy framework to de-hyphenate the border tension alongside developing a separate 10-point agenda to re-orient the bilateral relations that are currently at the lowest point since the start of border clashes at LAC in 2020. In other words, it set the stage for the meeting between Xi and Modi in the following month on the sidelines of the SCO summit.
The goodwill gesture for the upcoming India’s BRICS presidency in 2026 and the follow up China’s lead was also on the cards. Although S. Jai Shankar denies the allegation of the suspected appeasement (detente in French), one cannot forget the strategic ambiguities India creates on the critical issues following the Chanakya strategy of pragmatism for its rajyaraksha. Also, it the same state which denied the loss of fighter jets in the recent conflict but the truth was later exposed by its own generals and the international experts. So, the lies are at the forefront of the Indian public diplomacy.
It is more fascinating to look into the factors pushing India to change its China policy after years of its pro-western, anti-China rhetoric. Although Modi is not in a positon to clearly convey to its masses regarding the détente (appeasement) with China given the Sino-Pak threat theory Modi always use to brainwash its population for the desired electoral outcomes, the real progress is happening. Also, the hostile geopolitical environment, Trump’s tariffs threats, and the long-lasting New Delhi’s tactics of playing on the both sides, something which perfectly qualifies India to be categorizes as the geopolitically polygamous state, compelled India re-think of its present outlook.
Over the period of time, China has developed a comprehensive structure to counter India. Now that it is being operationalized, the defiance cost for India is much high than it ever thought. This is the prior reason that India no-longer affords its minus China stance. Until recently, India has been an active participant in almost every anti-China mini-lateral and multi-lateral alliance system. For instance, it is a member of QUAD, conducts tri-lateral dialogues with Japan and Australia, enjoys strategic partnership with France, and provides support to Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam in the issues concerning Beijing. Moreover, it has perfectly used the Beijing threat to secure favorable deals with the U.S. and west.
But, the game is now in the hands of Dragon. The first card Beijing has used is the wedging strategy – capitalizing upon the existing disputes in a particular region. It has deeply penetrated into the affairs of South Asia. Recently, it helped normalize relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh through Kunming vice-foreign minister track and other follow up meetings. The SCO chair is being strategically used by China in this regard. Moreover, India tried to use the trust deficit between Pakistan and Afghanistan in order to increase the vulnerability across its eastern flank that also miserably failed.
China’s foreign minister shocked New Delhi when he facilitated the trilateral meeting involving Afghanistan, China, and Pakistan. It produced positive results as Pakistan and Afghanistan uplifted the status of their envoys from Charge de Affaires to ambassadors. Also, many bilateral visits at different levels further facilitated the trust building between the both states which helped curb the terrorist inflow into Pakistan. In these two fronts, India witnessed a hardest slap that otherwise would have not attained taking its battalion.
Secondly, as I concluded in my article “Beijing’s South Asia Pivot: Towards a SAARC Alternative?” which was published at The Financial Daily International on 9 July, 2025, China systematically crashed New Delhi’s bid to become a regional hegemon though BIMSTEC. Beijing recently proposed an alternative regional organization surpassing the Indian dominance and the SAARC’s inability to tackle the issues of mutual concerns of its member states. While it witnessed a strategic appeal from most of the South Asian states, it resulted in the downgrading the domestic popularity of Modi owing to his mantra of strategic partnership with the regional states on the expanse of China.
Thirdly, the May confrontation between India and Pakistan further increase the vulnerability of India. As India aims to become a regional hegemon, and a counter-balance resident actor against China, it has been preparing accordingly for the past few years. But, BVM missile PL-15 which helped PAF shoot down 5 Indian jets including its bragged Rafael, electronic warfare capacity, and the war time communication further increase its security dilemma. The shifting balance of power in the region compelled the western states and the U.S. to rethink of their Indian partnership which was earlier designed to checkmate China. It has repercussion at the domestic as well as international level for New Delhi.
Apart from that, at the time when India was playing the hydro politics over the Indus river with Pakistan, Beijing’s proposed plan of constructing a dam over the Brahmaputra River showcase India how the weaponizing of water looks like. Despite media propaganda over the flow of water and its origination, this step pose serious threat to the water security of the 7 sister states.
What makes the geostrategic equation interesting is that neither China openly threatened India nor it advocated for the open confrontation. Rather, similar to the Cold War style policies of the U.S and the U.S.S.R, China used indirect covert kinetic and non-kinetic means to put India on its knees. This disciplining follows India’s excessive use of confrontational stance and assertive language at the domestic and international level, particularly in the mini-lateral organizations. Yet, it is to be seen whether India will continue its war mongering attitude or will learn some lessons from the recent happening.
In conclusion, one can say that the recent India-Pakistan conflict, strategic use of SCO presidency by Beijing, and the unexpected weakening of the India-U.S bromance made India vulnerable to Dragon. On the one hand, it resulted in bilateral talks over the border dispute, visa easiness, and reorientation of the bilateral relations; on the other hand, it softened India’s assertion at least in a short-run.
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