In the recent years, Sahel, an African region infamous for the insurgency, climate migration, poverty, and the political turmoil, has witnessed a tremendous shift in its geopolitical landscape. Historically, France has been a major external player in domestic politics of its former colonies in the belt. But, the states are now redefining the rules of their engagement with the regional and the global actors. It is a major change from the norm based ties to the equality based relations. In the given scenario, China and Russia are notably playing a strategic role in shifting the balance of power in the region.
The replacement of France by the DragonBear alliance can be contextualized by the socio-temporal analysis.Although the Sahel states (i.e. Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and Chad) had gained independence from the brutal French rule decades ago, the Francafrique Order – a political, economic, military, and the normative influence of France – was yet to overcome.Until recently, its reinforcement has been carried out by the military footprints, apparently preferential trade relations, and the diplomatic convergence by France. But, the kinetic operations by the French forces against the terrorist outfits changed the entire game.
France used the terrorist threat as a justification tool to gain the legitimacy of its mass scale military operations across the region – particularly in the last decade. For instance, it carried out Operation Brarkhane to curb the growing influence of AQIM, ISGS, JNIM, Al-Mourabitoun, and Ansar Dine in Sahel. But, one the one hand, it followed criticism for targeting the innocent civilians, and on the other hand, these operations become costly for the French government (due to domestic factors). Yet, criticism aside, in the operational dynamics, the missions failed to gain its described goals as the terrorist activities still continue.
The notion of neo-colonialism surfaced among the youth. Also, these operations deepen humanitarian and the governance crisis in Sahel. The change in the sentiments among the population against France, followed by the decoupling of the democratic governments in the belt, generated a conducive environment for China and Russia to strength their influence. Opposite to France (and the other Western states), the DragonBear axis is least concerned with the domestic conditions, political system, normative blueprint, and above all, the coercive actions by the regime in power against its own people – in its dealing with the host states. This was a triggering point which shifted the regional outlook altogether. For instance, by December 2023, French forces had vacated Sahel, which marked the beginning of a new chapter in the complex regional geopolitical equation.
The new opportunities were knocking for the Sahel states. The DragonBear axis strategically filled the gap left by France.For instance, China emerged as an alternative economic partner and Russia as a security provider. Economically, China helped Sahel with the infrastructure development (under BRI), easy loans, telecommunication networks, agricultural and the energy partnerships, and the extraction of the resources on favorable terms. Russia on the other hand, supplied small and medium scale weapons, provided military training to the local security forces, political support to the dictators, and signed suitable energy and trade deals with the Sahel states.
Although the replacement is not devoid of any controversy owing to the neo-colonial practices of China, and the illegitimate operations of the Wagner Group (in the past), the emergence of the BragonBear axis in the region provided a functional alterative to the states at least in the short run.
Here arises a crucial question: what is the impact of the DragonBear axis on the regional landscape of Sahel? Politically, engaging with the leadership without considering the democratic norms has enabled the dictatorial regimes gain international legitimacy. One after another, the belt fell into the hands of the military rulers (i.e. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger). The unwavering economic support (by China) and security guarantees (by Moscow) to curb the Western pressure has severe domestic repercussion for the well-being of common people.
In the governance spectrum, the withdrawal from the regional forums such as G5, and ECOWAS, has shaken the security architecture in West Africa that also indicates the possibility of the potential spill over into other domains. In the military and the economic sphere, there exist mixed opinion: some suspect that despite indigenous developmental rhetoric, only the replacement of France with China and Russia has happened, while the other are optimistic about the future of Sahel given the detachment of the neo-colonial politics of France.
It is important to contextualize whether the French influence has been completely vanished or itstill persists. On the surface level, the French military has vacated the belt and Russia has replaced France in the region with its resources for security deals. But, the imperial footprintsof France still exist through its multilayer and complex network of media, educational system, currency agreements, cultural linkages, and development financing. So, it can be said that the military juntas have facilitated the formal exist of France but its informal liaison are still shaping the political fabric of Sahel.
When it comes to how people have perceived the change, the clear answer might be difficult given the symbolic presence of France and the unavailability of the data due to the strict media control by the Junta rule. But, some incidents can be taken into consideration to observe the general trend. For instance, after the military takeover in Niger, mass rallies of people with their national flags alongside the Russian one, pro-Putin slogans in the region, and the anti-French movement by M62 indicates that, in one way or the other, the change is happening.
Moreover, the frustration over the norm-based relations with the U.S. and its counterparts have ended up favoring China’s economic deals and the joint ventures across Sahel. Above all, the academic literature in the past two years also shows that the Neo-Normal in Sahel has already established. Yet, there persist skepticism. Despite positive outlook of DragonBear, the civil societies in Sahel suspect economic hardships due to the anti-western rhetoric of the military dictators instead of balancing their relations with all global powers, long-term regional stability, declination in the public service delivery, and the authoritarian practices by the non-elected leaders.
Parallel to that, another notable event in the recent years is the withdrawal of Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali from ECOWAS. It has shacked the long-awaited dream of the “Western African Regionalism” as Sahel’s exit from the organization has deprived it from the significant population and nearly half of the total landmass, reducing its outreach and deteriorating its long-term vision. The departure, apparently, was due owing to the democratic mandate of ECOWAS. In response, the trio (i.e. Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali) launched the Alliance of the Sahel State (AES) – a militarized and anti-western alliance for the security purpose. But, the fragmented governance system in Sahel has serious repercussion for the region.
In conclusion, one can say that the departure of France from the region has opened another chapter in the socio-political and economic landscape of Sahel. But, its soft power, institutional legacy, and the cognitive imperialism still persist. The entry of the DragonBear axis on the other hand is being seen positively due to its pragmatic appeal. But, the fragmented public perception, prevalence of authoritarian regimes, and the feasibility of the long-term ties is skeptical.
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