NEW DELHI: India faces an ultimatum from the United States with major political and economic ramifications both at home and abroad: end purchases of Russian oil or face painful tariffs.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, leader of the world’s most populous nation and its fifth-biggest economy, must make some difficult decisions.
“It is a geopolitical ambush with a 21-day fuse,” said Syed Akbaruddin, a former Indian diplomat to the United Nations, writing in the Times of India newspaper.
New Delhi called Washington’s move “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable”.
Modi has appeared defiant. He has not spoken directly about Trump but said on Thursday “India will never compromise” on the interests of its farmers.
Agriculture employs vast numbers of people in India and has been a key sticking point in trade negotiations.
It all seems a far cry from India’s early hopes for special tariff treatment after Trump said in February he had found a “special bond” with Modi.
“The resilience of US-India relations… is now being tested more than at any other time over the last 20 years,” said Michael Kugelman, from the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.
Russia accounted for nearly 36 percent of India’s total crude oil imports in 2024, snapping up approximately 1.8 million barrels of cut-price Russian crude per day.
Buying Russian oil saved India billions of dollars on import costs, keeping domestic fuel prices relatively stable.
Switching suppliers will likely threaten price rises, but not doing so will hit India’s exports.
Modi has sought to bolster ties with other allies.
That includes calling Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Thursday, who said they had agreed on the need “to defend multilateralism”.
Ashok Malik, of business consultancy The Asia Group, told AFP: “There is a signal there, no question.”
Modi, according to Indian media, might also visit China in late August. It would be Modi’s first visit since 2018, although it has not been confirmed officially.
Beijing’s foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said in response to an AFP question on Friday that “China welcomes Prime Minister Modi” for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.
Opposition politicians are watching keenly.
Mallikarjun Kharge, president of the key opposition Congress party, warned the government was “disastrously dithering”.
He also pointed to India’s longstanding policy of “non-alignment”.
“Any nation that arbitrarily penalises India for our time-tested policy of strategic autonomy… doesn’t understand the steel frame India is made of,” Kharge said in a statement.
