LAHORE / JHELUM: Authorities have warned that water flow in Pakistan’s eastern rivers, Ravi, Jhelum, and Sutlej, may rise sharply as India is expected to release additional water amid forecasts of intense rainfall across northern and central Punjab.
Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) Director General Irfan Ali Kathia said on Saturday that Pakistan’s flood response units were on alert after receiving indications of upstream releases from India. “We are closely monitoring inflows in the eastern rivers as India may discharge more water over the weekend,” he told reporters in Lahore.
He said that Punjab would receive widespread rainfall beginning October 5, automatically raising the water level in rivers, canals, and ponds. “Our teams are prepared for a potential surge in water flow, especially in low-lying areas near the Ravi and Sutlej,” he added.
According to the PDMA, westerly winds have entered upper Punjab, bringing the possibility of heavy rain and thunderstorms in Rawalpindi, Murree, Galiyat, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Lahore, Multan, Bahawalpur, and other districts. Rainfall is expected to intensify on October 6 and 7, with 50–70mm predicted in some areas.
At Head Marala, the Chenab River currently carries around 20,000 cusecs of water, while an additional 100,000 cusecs is anticipated from India within the next 48 hours due to silt-flushing operations at the Dulhasti hydropower project. The Sutlej may receive up to 50,000 cusecs, while outflow from Marala stands at 23,000 cusecs.
The PDMA has issued alerts to commissioners, deputy commissioners, and relevant departments to stay vigilant. Citizens have been advised to avoid unnecessary travel, keep clear of riverbanks, and contact the PDMA helpline 1129 in case of emergency.
Floods in recent weeks have already affected 4,795 villages in 28 districts of Punjab, impacting over 407,000 people and forcing the evacuation of more than 612,000 residents. In South Punjab, 331 relief camps currently house over 100,000 displaced individuals, supported by 425 medical and mobile health units.
Kathia said surveys were underway to assess damage to crops and infrastructure. “Our goal is to provide transparent relief and accurate data to guide future rehabilitation,” he said.
To streamline assistance, the Bank of Punjab is setting up booths in all tehsils for distribution of relief cards, with over 50,000 people already receiving aid. The PDMA and Punjab Information Technology Board have launched a complaints portal to address survey issues within seven days.
Meteorologists have forecast intermittent showers and thunderstorms across Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir through early next week. The National Disaster Management Authority has urged local administrations to prepare for possible flooding in northern Punjab and upper catchment areas.
“The coming week will be critical,” Kathia warned. “We are monitoring India’s water releases and Pakistan’s own rainfall pattern closely, any overlap could increase flood risk.”
