The fragile ceasefire between India and Pakistan following May’s military clashes has created a situation ripe for exploitation by terrorists. Increased focus on the eastern border means fewer resources are available for the western border and counterterrorism operations in Balochistan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and elsewhere. This is evidenced by recent attacks, including those by Baloch nationalist terrorist groups and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
In the case of TTP, the situation is also exacerbated by the fact that the TTP can act with impunity from Afghanistan. A recent UN report backed up Pakistan’s position on the issue, noting that the TTP continues “to receive substantial logistical and operational support” from the Afghan Taliban, and that the terrorist group has “continued access to a range of weapons, enhancing the lethality of attacks”. The group’s size has also swelled to an estimated 6,000 fighters — more than an average army brigade.
Curiously, the report also noted that despite the Afghan Taliban being at war with Daesh in Afghanistan, the TTP and Daesh maintain “tactical-level connections” with Daesh. In a similar vein, despite their completely different motivations, the TTP is reportedly hosting and training Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) terrorists at its camps in southern Afghanistan. This raises the question whether the TTP is still primarily a religious extremist group, or just another anti-Pakistan terrorist group, as Islamabad has recently argued. This would also support Pakistan’s argument that Baloch nationalist terrorists and the TTP are all receiving Indian funding.
Meanwhile, Daesh is also reportedly using the Indian government’s anti-Muslim dog whistles — directed at Pakistan — as a recruitment tool. Given India’s propensity to blame Pakistan for any violence against it, rather than New Delhi’s own policing or intelligence failures, Daesh or its affiliates could easily spark the fire that leads to war in the subcontinent.
