LAHORE/RAWALPINDI/ISLAMABAD: Ongoing floods in Punjab, the country’s agricultural heartland, have triggered sharp hikes in wheat and flour prices, devastating supply chains and deepening the burden on consumers already reeling from rising inflation.
The crisis has spread into the twin cities and adjoining areas, where flour prices have spiked sharply and authorities have imposed restrictions on the sale of 15kg bags to contain shortages.
Punjab has been battered by record monsoon rains and unexpected water releases from India, causing the Ravi, Chenab, and Sutlej rivers to flood. Over 2,000 villages have been submerged, and more than two million people evacuated. The floods are the worst in decades, destroying a significant portion of the country’s wheat and staple crop reserves.
By one estimate, approximately 30 percent of national wheat stocks were either destroyed or damaged—fueling fears of looming shortages.
Wheat prices have surged by roughly 40 percent, with 100 kg bags now selling at Rs 9,000 in major cities like Karachi, Peshawar, and Quetta—and potentially heading toward Rs 15,000 without swift government action.
In Swabi and South Waziristan, local traders report wheat prices climbing from Rs 3,000 to Rs 6,300 per 50 kg bag in just one week—more than doubling amidst the supply squeeze. That disruption is rippling into flour markets. In Obauro, Sindh, a 40-kg flour bag now costs Rs 4,400, up from Rs 2,800 just ten days ago—raising per-kilogram prices from Rs 80 to Rs 110.
In Punjab itself, flour costs have hit record levels: a 10-kg bag now sells for Rs 1,000—an increase of Rs 300—while 20-kg bags trade at Rs 2,000. Wheat mill associations in Sindh have accused Punjab’s government of intentionally restricting inter-provincial wheat transport, creating an artificial shortage and aggravating the crisis.
Meanwhile, in Rawalpindi-Islamabad and adjoining areas, flour prices have risen steeply, further compounding the crisis. According to market updates, flour mills have set the price of a 20kg bag at Rs2,400, while the government has directed retailers to sell the same at Rs1,810. Similarly, a 10kg bag has been priced by mills at Rs1,200, against the official rate of Rs905.
The price of fine flour has jumped significantly, with an 80kg sack now costing up to Rs10,500 compared to Rs7,000 previously. The price of a sack of red flour has also surged, climbing from Rs6,000 to Rs9,500. The disparity between official rates and market prices has sparked concern among consumers, who are already burdened by inflation.
In response to fears of worsening shortages, the Punjab government on Friday imposed an immediate ban on the use of wheat in feed mills across the province. A notification issued by the Punjab Home Department states that Section 144 has been imposed to curb the diversion of wheat to feed mills. The ban will remain in place for 30 days, effective immediately and lasting until October 3.
“Wheat will now only be used in flour mills for the production of flour,” the notification clarified. The spokesperson further revealed that feed mills in Punjab currently hold a stock of 104,184 metric tons of wheat. These mills were reportedly planning to use the wheat as poultry feed, as highlighted in a report by the Secretary of Price Control.
Market analysts warn that the floods may add as much as 100 basis points to inflation, with food prices already climbing. The surge in wheat prices to a two-year high of Rs 4,000 per 40 kg reflects immediate inflationary pressures. Allied sectors are feeling the strain too. Flood-related livestock losses, particularly the deaths and displacement of animals, are disrupting meat supply chains. Over 6,100 animals have died since late August, further pushing food costs higher.
Consumers are bearing the worst of it. Across the country, families are scrambling to afford staple foods.
In Sindh, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where wheat sources rely heavily on Punjab, surging prices are creating widespread distress in marketplaces. Experts and industry groups are urging the government to act—by lifting wheat transport bans, tapping emergency reserves, and allowing imports to stabilise prices.
